The U.S. Housing Market Is Finally On The Mend
July 25, 2009 by kenduncan
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Existing home sales show signs of recovery
WASHINGTON – July 24, 2009 – The U.S. housing market is finally on the mend after its most far-reaching collapse in 70 years. That could help rebuild consumer confidence and revive the economy.
For the first time in five years, sales of previously occupied homes rose for the third consecutive month in June, while foreclosure sales and the glut of homes on the market both declined.
The figures, released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors, and a string of rosy corporate earnings reports sparked a rally on Wall Street as the Dow Jones industrials rose above 9,000 for the first time since January.
“People believe that the worst is behind us,” said Julie Longtin, a real estate agent with Re/Max Professionals in Providence, R.I., an area that has suffered deeply from record foreclosures of risky loans.
Sales also have risen for three straight months in 40 out of 55 major metropolitan areas tracked by the Associated Press-Re/Max Housing Report, also released Thursday. Prices rose during that period in about half of those areas.
Still, unlike past recessions, the turnaround in the real estate sector is likely to have a muted effect overall. That’s largely because homebuilders are expected to keep bulldozers idle as long as they face competition from bargain-priced foreclosures. And it’s likely to take at least another year before job losses and foreclosures peak.
The Labor Department said Thursday the number of newly laid-off workers seeking jobless benefits rose 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 554,000 last week, though the government said its report again was distorted by the timing of auto plant shutdowns.
Unemployment insurance claims have declined steadily since the spring, but most private economists and the Federal Reserve expect jobs to remain scarce and the unemployment rate to top 10 percent by year-end.
“We’re not going to see much growth in (home) sales until the labor market turns around,” said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight. “People don’t move as much when they can’t find work.”
But companies should start hiring as their fortunes improve – and there were some early signs Thursday that’s starting to happen.
Ford Motor Co. surprised investors with a profit of $2.3 billion, due mainly to a huge gain for debt reduction, while manufacturing conglomerate 3M Co. and candy maker Hershey Co. raised their profit forecasts for the year.
The Dow Jones industrial average, the stock market’s best-known indicator, shot up almost 190 points Thursday to 9,069.29, its highest level since November, and all the big indexes gained more than 2 percent.
Analysts said signs that the housing market is finally, gradually turning around could help spur demand as buyers become less fearful of losing their shirts.
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Florida’s existing home, condo sales rise in June 2009
July 23, 2009 by kenduncan
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Florida’s existing home, condo sales rise in June 2009
Existing-home sales up again, says NAR
ORLANDO, Fla. – July 23, 2009 – Florida’s existing home sales rose in June – the 10th consecutive month that sales activity showed gains in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). Statewide sales in June also increased over the previous month’s sales level in both the existing home and existing condominium markets. And, for the second month in a row, the statewide median sales price for existing homes was higher than the previous month’s statewide median.
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Existing home sales rose 28 percent last month with a total of 15,850 homes sold statewide compared to 12,339 homes sold in June 2008, according to FAR. Statewide existing home sales in June increased 13.8 percent over May’s statewide activity.
Florida Realtors also reported a 39 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condos in June; existing condo sales last month rose 8.3 percent over the total units sold in May.
Sixteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in June and 14 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. A majority of the state’s MSAs have reported increased sales for the past year (12 consecutive months).
Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $148,000; a year ago, it was $205,300 for a 28 percent decrease. However, the statewide existing home median price in June increased 2.49 percent over May’s median price; it also was higher than the statewide median price reported each month since the start of 2009. According to housing industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in May 2009 was $172,900, down 16.1 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In Massachusetts, the statewide median resales price was $284,000 in May; in California, it was $267,570; in Maryland, it was $265,724; and in New York, it was $189,000.
NAR’s latest housing industry outlook notes the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers is boosting the sector. “Strong activity by entry level buyers is helping to absorb inventory and allow some existing owners to make a trade,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. The big question is how much the appraisal issue will impact the ability of contracts to go to closing.”
In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 5,241 units sold statewide compared to 3,771 units in June 2008 for a 39 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $112,900; in June 2008 it was $180,400 for a 37 percent decrease. The national median existing condo price was $173,800 in May 2009, according to NAR.
Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.42 percent last month, down significantly from the average rate of 6.32 percent in June 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
Among the state’s smaller markets, the Punta Gorda MSA reported a total of 216 homes sold in June compared to 196 homes a year ago for a 10 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $145,600; a year ago, it was $141,000 for a 3 percent increase. The market’s existing condo median price last month was $140,000; a year earlier, it was $160,000 for a 13 percent decrease
I have been involved in the property and building industry for 30 years. My experience together with my personal knowledge of the market in Florida is an extremely valuable asset to have working for you in your search for a Florida vacation home or investment property.I would be happy to act as your Realtor in The PGA Village Port St Lucie
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Bidding wars break out on low-priced homes
July 21, 2009 by kenduncan
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Bidding wars break out on low-priced homes
Fla. – July 21, 2009 – Bidding wars are returning to South Florida’s housing market, as investors and first-time buyers compete for homes and condominiums listed at $200,000 or less.
The race for properties is reminiscent of the boom years from 2000 to 2005, when multiple offers on all types of dwellings helped push prices to record highs.
Back then, a dearth of properties for sale had buyers rushing to scoop up anything they could find, for fear that prices would keep rising. Now, frustrated with a bloated inventory of foreclosed homes in disrepair, buyers go to great lengths when they spot a house or condo in pristine condition.
“When they find a good listing, people are pouncing,” said Terry Story, a real estate agent for Coldwell Banker in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Agents say the heated competition has been building in recent months, a result of low mortgage rates and the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers that expires Nov. 30.
Steady sales increases during the past year gradually have worked off the inventory of available homes. Real estate agents are convinced that the overall market has hit bottom or is close to one.
Banks say they’re overwhelmed with foreclosures and try to market them for sale as quickly as possible.
“The longer we hold them, the more money it costs us,” said Nancy Norris, a spokeswoman for banking giant Chase.
The bidding wars in South Florida are giving sellers more leverage after three years of buyers calling the shots.
Investor Greg Bales bought a three-bedroom home in Lauderdale Lakes three months ago for $65,000 – $1,900 less than what it sold for in 1985.
Bales, 41, beefed up the curb appeal with a new paint job, trees and other landscaping. Inside, he installed laminate floors, granite countertops, new kitchen appliances and an alarm system.
He put the home back on the market July 10 for $139,900 and fielded 10 offers, three for more than the asking price.
He selected a bid from a first-time buyer for $145,000, and the deal is expected to be complete next month.
“We would have had a bunch more offers, but my real estate agent told the people it really wasn’t worth their time if they weren’t submitting a full-price offer,” Bales said.
Eric Cormier of Philadelphia is searching for a small home for his sister-in-law in Delray Beach. He offered $120,000 cash for a house listed for $152,000, only to be out-bid by a few thousand dollars.
Another home he considered received four offers in one day.
“I was surprised,” said Cormier, 47. “I thought there was a fire sale going on in Florida.”
In some cases, first-time buyers are losing homes because sellers prefer dealing with cash investors who don’t have to fiddle with financing.
Meanwhile, some real estate agents are creating “drama pricing” – listing properties for far less than the market value to attract bidders and drive up the eventual selling price.
“It’s like ‘Ta-da’,” said Douglas Rill, an agent for Century 21 America’s Choice in West Palm Beach. “It creates so much of a buzz that it results in a bidding war.”
Drama pricing typically happens with short sales. Those homes aren’t as much in demand because buyers know that it can take months for the deals to close. In a short sale, a lender accepts less than what’s owed on the mortgage and forgives the remaining debt.
Tony Thomas, 44, is looking for a home in the $200,000 range in central Palm Beach County. He made three offers, only to be told each time that another buyer out-bid him.
His agent, Liz Golub, told him to “run like a bunny” to make strong offers as soon as properties come on the market. The strategy paid off recently when the owner of a home near Lantana accepted his offer. But because it’s a short sale, the bank must approve the deal, and that could take months.
“It’s frustrating,” Thomas said. “I have not seen the benefits of this buyer’s market right now.”
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I have been involved in the property and building industry for 30 years. My experience together with my personal knowledge of the market in Florida is an extremely valuable asset to have working for you in your search for a Florida vacation home or investment property.I would be happy to act as your Realtor in Stuart Florida
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Upscale home sales lag as jumbo loans are hard to get.
July 18, 2009 by kenduncan
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Upscale home sales lag as jumbo loans are hard to get.
WASHINGTON – July 15, 2009 – More than four months after the Obama administration launched its housing rescue plan, scores of lenders are focused on rewriting mortgage loans to make them more affordable.
But one demographic is being largely ignored: homeowners with higher-price loans, which his hrting sales and affecting realtors in Jupiter.
They don’t qualify for mortgage modifications under the Obama plan. They can’t get today’s low interest rates if they try to refinance. And with newly cautious lenders warier about who they lend to, just try to sell a home that costs $730,000 or more these days. In many cases, finding a buyer who can get financing takes far longer than for lower-price homes, because banks want as much as 30 percent down and six months of mortgage payments in reserve.
The result is a housing market in which sales and purchases of higher-price homes have come almost to a standstill, and it’s a predicament that could undermine the housing recovery. Move-up buyers (homeowners who want to buy larger, pricier homes) are getting locked out by lack of financing. Too many unsold homes in the top tier of the market also can push down prices for homes in the midprice range. Realtors in Stuart have reported that the recent boo in sales has not yet hit the higher priced market.
“We need to have a market recovery in all segments,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR). “If the high-end market weakens, those in the middle have to reduce prices.” Prices on luxury water front homes have dropped over the past few months report several realtors in Jupiter Island
While the number of homeowners with higher loans is small relative to the entire market, Yun says, “All of Middle America is undoubtedly impacted.”
Jumbos and super-jumbos
Bigger loans, known as jumbo loans, come in three types.
Loans up to $417,000 are considered “conforming,” and can be sold to mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which also guarantee them when they resell those mortgages to investors. But after that, the situation is more complex.
Loans between $417,000 and $729,750 are “conforming jumbo,” and loans above $729,750 are “super-jumbo.” Fannie and Freddie back only conforming jumbos, and what qualifies as conforming can vary depending on location. In San Francisco, Fannie and Freddie will back loans up to $729,750. In Atlantic City, the maximum is $453,750.
Lenders are leery of making loans above the amount that Freddie and Fannie will guarantee, because if a jumbo loan borrower defaults, it’s harder for a bank to quickly sell a higher-end foreclosed property. And because Freddie and Fannie don’t buy non-conforming jumbo loans, there’s less of a secondary market for super-size loans.
States with the highest percentages of jumbo mortgages include Hawaii, California and New York, as well as the District of Columbia. In New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Virginia, Connecticut, Washington, Nevada and Florida, jumbos account for 10 percent or more of all loans.
Jumbo loans aren’t just for the very rich: In some pricey areas, $500,000 may buy only a modest single-family house or condo.
Sales of higher-price homes have slowed to a glacial pace, driving the supply of homes for sale above $750,000 from 18.7 months in 2007 to 41.1 months in 2009, according to NAR.
With home values still falling in many areas, borrowers who took out jumbos a few years ago are finding they can’t refinance, and their mortgages are sliding into default. The number of jumbos 90 or more days delinquent reached 4.83 percent in March 2009, up from 1.68 percent in March 2008, says First American CoreLogic.
That trend is helping spread the foreclosure crisis from real-estate-bubble markets, such as California and Florida, where the housing crisis started, to other areas. Data from First American CoreLogic show that delinquency rates on jumbo mortgages under $1 million have more than doubled in areas such as Atlanta, St. Louis and Portland, Ore.
Some cities with high percentages of jumbo loans that are 90 or more days delinquent include Merced, Calif., Muncie, Ind., and Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
It’s been a costly situation for Victor Montalvo-Lugo, a clinical program manager at MedImmune in Gaithersburg, Md. He and his wife, Janette, bought a $1.6 million home in Thousand Oaks, Calif., in late 2005. He moved to Maryland for the MedImmune post in December, contracting for an $800,000 home to be built by late August. But with the California house on the market for weeks, he’s had no luck selling, even asking $1.05 million.
If he can’t sell that home before a company buy-out option expires, Montalvo-Lugo worries about the financing on the new one. A similar but smaller home down the block from his in California is listed in the $900,000s, forcing him to lower his initial asking price. “I’m very concerned. We are already listing for less than what we owe,” Montalvo-Lugo says. “We lost all of the initial equity, and we owe the bank more than we will get.”
Pressure on prices
Those with jumbo loans who lose a job or have an adjustable-rate mortgage that resets to a higher amount are struggling. But help is scarce: Under the Obama housing rescue plan, homeowners with loans above $729,750 aren’t eligible for mortgage modifications. Lenders may make such modifications on an individual basis, however.
Many homeowners in higher-end markets are finding they must drastically lower prices to try to get buyers. From July 1, 2008, to July 1, 2009, nearly 26 percent of homes on the market for more than $1 million have seen price reductions, and the average reduction is 13 percent off the asking price, according to real estate information provider Trulia. Homes on the market for less than $1 million have seen an average reduction of 9 percent off the asking price.
“What you’re seeing are those properties sitting on the market for a lot longer because people can’t get loans,” says David Kerr, a ZipRealty agent in the San Francisco area. “I got a call about a property in Berkeley for more than $1 million and almost fell out of my chair. All of what we’re showing is in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range.”
Jumbos are still being offered at Investors Savings Bank in Short Hills, N.J. But demand has slacked off because those taking out or refinancing jumbo loans must pay higher interest rates than other borrowers, says Richard Spengler, chief lending officer. Rates on jumbos are hovering around 6 percent, vs. 5.20 percent on a 30-year, fixed conventional loan.
The bank requires down payments of 20 percent to 30 percent, depending on the size of the jumbo. Spengler says many banks have gotten out of jumbo lending because of the lack of a secondary market. Investor Savings Bank keeps jumbos it issues in its own portfolio.
The overall stagnation in the market has a spillover effect on the economy. NAR estimates the slump in the jumbo home loan market has led to a $42 billion decline in economic activity.
That’s because borrowers who take out jumbos have much higher incomes than a typical borrower (an average $207,600 in 2007, says NAR’s most recent data) and when they buy a home, they spend a lot to furnish it. When sales of costly homes slow, sellers of furniture, carpeting, flooring and appliances get hurt.
Z Gallerie, a home merchandise retailer, is the latest in a string of higher-end stores to feel pinched. The store filed for bankruptcy-court protection from creditors in April, citing a severe sales drop. January sales were down 19 percent from a year earlier.
“The high-end retailers are being impacted,” says Gary Drenik at BIGresearch, a consumer intelligence firm. “When people buy a home, home-improvement and related sales go up.”
Those who can buy higher-end homes are seeing their discretionary income further whacked by strict lending conditions. Lenders are requiring some borrowers seeking to finance 80 percent of their home purchase keep 40 percent of the total loan value in a reserve account, says Michael Tooker, a mortgage planning specialist for Valley Private Mortgage Group in Scottsdale, Ariz. On a $1 million loan, “that’s $400,000 in reserve,” he says. “Some want six months total debt service in reserve. It’s so arbitrary.”
Camille Swanson, a Realtor at Realty Executives in Phoenix, can relate to the struggle. After selling her home, she fell in love with a foreclosed stacked-stone home in the desert that had been abandoned. But she discovered that no lender wanted to give her a jumbo loan on a property that needed so much renovation.
Swanson is almost finished obtaining a loan for the new place with an approval up to $640,000, but details are still being negotiated. With her 20 percent downpayment, the total investment will be $800,000. She approached five lenders as far as Washington before finding one in her area to give her a loan. She didn’t need money in reserve because of her retirement assets. “For them, it’s an issue of risk,” Swanson says.
Raising the roof
Real estate groups such as the NAR are pressuring Congress and the Obama administration to increase the jumbo loan limits that Fannie and Freddie will guarantee and make them permanent. Current amounts were raised in 2008 and are set to expire Dec. 31. They also want the Federal Reserve to buy jumbo-backed securities because Freddie and Fannie can’t. The hope is that Fed purchases would create enough of a secondary market for these loans so banks would be more open to lending higher amounts.
Meanwhile, in jumbo-heavy markets, homeowners are increasingly frustrated by their inability to sell. They can’t relocate for jobs or retirement. They can’t unload vacation homes that they may now struggle to afford this could be hurting realtors in Sewalls Point.
One such homeowner is Robert Westover, who works for the federal government in Washington, D.C. He’s been trying for months to sell a home in Hawaii with an ocean view. He bought it for $585,000 six years ago; it was valued at $1.1 million during the real estate peak in 2006. But there are no offers. He planned to list it for $940,000, but his Realtor suggested $890,000. Then he lowered it to $850,000. At one point, a potential buyer came forward but had no financing.
“It’s just been tough. It was getting crazy,” says Westover, 45, who now is taking the home off the market and renting it instead. “I hope I’ve learned a lesson, which is don’t put anything on the market in this economy. Most people who have homes in the jumbo (price range) are reliable, pay bills. Why are we suffering while the government gives help to everyone else?”
June housing construction rises unexpectedly
WASHINGTON (AP) – July 17, 2009 – Construction of new U.S. homes rose in June to the highest level in seven months, a sign builders are starting to regain confidence as they emerge from the housing bust good news for realtors in Port St Lucie
The Commerce Department said Friday that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 3.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000 units, from an upwardly revised rate of 562,000 in May.
That was better than the 530,000-unit pace economists expected, and the second straight increase after April’s record low of 479,000 units.
In another encouraging sign, applications for building permits, seen as a good indicator of future activity, rose 8.7 percent in June to an annual rate of 563,000 units. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected an annual rate of 520,000 units.
The jump in housing starts reflected a more than 14 percent rise in construction of single-family homes. Recent reports on waterfront condos on Hutchison Island show an increase in sales over the past few months as reported by several realtors on Hutchison Island.
I have been involved in the property and building industry for 30 years. My experience together with my personal knowledge of the market in Florida is an extremely valuable asset to have working for you in your search for a Florida vacation home or investment property.I would be happy to act as your Realtor in Jensen Beach Florida. http://kenduncanrealtor.com/
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New Properties Overseas with our New European Partner
July 7, 2009 by kenduncan
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We shall be offering a large selection of overseas properties through our new partner Property Prophets Ltd one of the UK and Europe’s largest overseas property agents.
Please keep watching for the latest updates regarding this exciting new partnership.
If you are a Realtor or Developer and would be interested in having one of the UK and Europe’s largest overseas estate agents sell your properties
Please contact me
305-320-6744
ken@yourfraction.net
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Florida offers a great qualify of life
July 1, 2009 by kenduncan
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ORLANDO, Fla., July 1, 2009 – What does Florida have to offer? Pick up a travel brochure and some benefits are clear: Beautiful beaches. Miles of scenic parks and nature preserves. Oceans, rivers and lakes offering boating, fishing, swimming and other water recreation. A rich and varied history, which includes the city of St. Augustine, the oldest permanent European settlement in the mainland United States. Unique entertainment parks and other family-friendly attractions. Cultural activities that offer residents and visitors fine theater, music, dance and arts events. Then there is Florida’s climate featuring an average annual high of 81 degrees Fahrenheit and an average annual low of 60 degrees, giving the Sunshine State its well-known nickname and reputation
• Florida beaches were awarded more top 10 spots than any other state, including the No. 1 beach in the U.S., Caladesi Island State Park, on America’s Best Beaches list for 2008. This internationally recognized ranking by Dr. Stephen P. Leatherman (aka Dr. Beach) is based on 50 criteria including number of sunny days, sand softness, algae and pollution content, safety record, and more. Leatherman is a Ph.D. coastal scientist, professor of environmental studies and director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida International University in Miami.
• The state’s park system, one of the largest in the U.S., has 160 parks covering more than 700,000 acres and 100 miles of Florida’s beaches.
• Seven of Relocate-America’s Top 100 Places to Live in 2008 were Florida cities, including one, Flagler Beach, which was named to the Top 10. These rankings attest to Florida’s high quality of life, and are based on a combination of economic data and feedback from people who live in each area.
• In many ways, Florida’s cost of living is below that of other states with similar economic growth and in-migration rates. For example, the state’s homeownership rate currently stands at about 70 percent, well above the national average. And, with data from the Florida Association of Realtors showing that $187,800 was the statewide median price for an existing home at year-end 2008, housing prices compare well to other similar states.
• Noted for its outstanding statewide system of trails, Florida was named the Best Trails State in America, winning the biennial National Trails Award in this past November from the national nonprofit organization American Trails.
• Five Florida universities were named to the Best Values in Public Colleges list for 2009 by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance. The schools are University of Florida, ranking No. 2 in the nation; New College of Florida, No. 8; Florida State University, No. 17; University of Central Florida, No. 42; and the University of South Florida, No. 75. Among other criteria, these rankings recognize schools with top academics and affordable costs.
• Florida’s economic climate ranks No. 1 in the U.S., according to Forbes’ Best States for Business. Ranking eighth overall, Florida also scored among the top five in the Labor and Growth Prospects categories. (Forbes, August 2008)
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